I-polyethylene yehlabathi kunye nemida yenzuzo yepropylene iya kuhlala iphantsi

1.Asian March amaxabiso petrochemical axutywe

Ngokutsho kwe-ICIS Singapore, ngo-Matshi, iimveliso ze-petrochemical kwiityathanga zexabiso ezahlukeneyo e-Asia zibonise iindlela ezahlukeneyo zexabiso ngenxa yeenguqu kwibhalansi yokubonelela kunye nemfuno.Ngexesha lokushicilela, isiqingatha seemveliso ze-petrochemical ze-31 ezigutyungelwe yi-ICIS Asia Price Forecast zinexabiso eliqhelekileyo eliphantsi ngo-Matshi kunoFebruwari.

Imfuno iyonke e-China yaqala ukubuyisela ngo-Matshi, i-ICIS yathi.Imisebenzi e-China isetelwe ukuba iqalise kwakhona njengoko uthintelo lobhubhane lulula.Amaxabiso e-polyester e-China abone ukunyuka okuqinileyo ngo-Matshi, okukhuthazwa yintsebenzo eqinile kukhenketho kunye nemisebenzi yangaphandle, kunye nokuvalwa okungacwangciswanga kwikota yokuqala kuya kuphinda kunyuse ixabiso eliphakathi kwe-acrylic acid ngoMatshi.Ukuguquguquka kwamaxabiso e-oyile ekrwada kusenokubangela ukungaqiniseki malunga nentsingiselo yamaxabiso.Amaxabiso e-US benchmark crude West Texas Intermediate (WTI) yawa, iqhubela amaxabiso e-naphtha ngaphantsi kwe-$ 700 / mt phakathi kwenyanga.

Ngelo xesha, imfuno kumacandelo athile afana ne-real estate kunye ne-autos e-Asia ingabonisa ukuphuculwa okuncinci, kodwa akuyi kuba yanele ukukhupha iinkxalabo.Umyinge wexabiso le-diisononyl phthalate (DINP) kunye ne-oxo alcohols, ehambelana ngokusondeleyo noshishino lokwakha, yehla ngo-Matshi.Amaxabiso kwezinye iimveliso, ezifana nepropylene kunye ne-polypropylene (PP), ziya kuhlala zisindwa kakhulu ngumthamo omtsha.Amaxabiso eethylene nawo ajika abuthathaka ngoMatshi, kodwa amaxabiso aphakathi ngoMatshi ebesephezulu kunoFebruwari ngenxa yesiqalo esiphakamileyo ekuqaleni kukaMatshi.

Ukubuyiselwa kwemfuno yaseTshayina kwikota yokuqala yayahluke ngokwesakhiwo, kunye nokuchacha ngokukhawuleza kwempahla yabathengi engona ixesha elide, kodwa ukubuya okucothayo kwimpahla ehlala ixesha elide notyalo-mali.Kwishishini lezokutya kunye nokhenketho, ngokwedatha evela kwiSebe lezoThutho laseTshayina, ngoFebruwari, izixeko ezingama-54 zaseTshayina ezinololiwe ezidolophini kunye ne-subway zithutha abakhweli abaziibhiliyoni ezi-2.18, ukonyuka konyaka ngonyaka ngama-39.6%. umyinge womthamo wabakhweli wenyanga ngowama-2019 9.6%.Ukonyuka kwezithuthi zikaloliwe kwiinyanga ezimbini ezidlulileyo zowama-2023 kukwabonisa ukuchacha okuqinileyo kohambo lokuhamba phakathi kwezixeko zaseTshayina.I-FMCG e-Asiya iya kuqhutywa ngamandla kukunyuka kwemisebenzi yangaphandle kwaye iya kukhulisa imfuno yeepolima.Ukupakishwa kokutya kunye nokusetyenziswa kwesiselo kuya kuxhasa iPP kunye ne-bottle-grade polyethylene terephthalate (PET) amaxabiso."Ukuthengwa kwempahla eyongeziweyo kuya kunceda ishishini le-polyester," watsho umhlalutyi ophezulu we-ICIS uJenny Yi.

Ukungaqiniseki okubalulekileyo kusele kwezinye iindawo zokusetyenziswa kwabasebenzisi bokugqibela, okukhokelela kwimvakalelo elumkileyo yentengiso.Kwicandelo le-auto, ukuthengisa ngoJanuwari nangoFebruwari 2023 kuye kwacotha unyaka nonyaka njengoko ikhefu lerhafu yokuthenga imoto yaseTshayina kunye nenkxaso yemoto yombane iphela ekupheleni kuka-2022.Ngaphaya koko, ukuthunyelwa kwempahla kumazwe angaphandle kwahlala kubuthathaka phakathi kokunyuka kwamaxabiso ehlabathi kunye noxinzelelo lwemfuno ye-polyolefin.

I-ICIS ikholelwa ukuba amandla amatsha okuvelisa aya kuba ngomnye umba ophambili ojongene noxinzelelo oluphantsi kumaxabiso emveliso yepetrochemical eAsia kulo nyaka.Ukugunyaziswa kweeyunithi ezimbini ezinkulu ze-naphtha crackers kunye ne-derivatives phakathi kuFebruwari kuya kwandisa ngakumbi iimveliso ezifana ne-polyethylene (PE) kunye ne-PP.Xa kuthelekiswa nekhonkco loshishino lwe-ethylene, i-propylene kunye ne-PP ye-industry chain ichatshazelwa ngakumbi ngumthamo omtsha wemveliso.Oku kungenxa yokuba iiprojekthi ezininzi ezintsha ze-propane dehydrogenation (PDH) ziya kumiselwa kulo nyaka.Ukususela ngoMatshi ukuya ku-Epreli kulo nyaka, i-Asia iya kuba ne-2.6 yezigidi zeetoni / ngonyaka wepropylene entsha yepropylene ecetywayo ukuba isetyenziswe.Ukujongana nencopho enokwenzeka yokukhula kwesikhundla, amaxabiso e-Asia PP alindeleke ukuba ehle ngoMatshi nango-Epreli.

"Ngaphezu kweetoni ze-140,000 ze-ethylene kulindeleke ukuba zithunyelwe ukusuka e-US ukuya e-Asia kwikota yesibini, eya kwenza ukuba i-marketment iqaphele ngakumbi," kusho u-Amy Yu, umhlalutyi ophezulu kwi-ICIS.Kwakhona, ukungena kobonelelo oluvela kweminye imimandla kunokugcina iAsia ibonelelwa kakuhle emva koMatshi.I-PP, i-PE kunye nemithwalo ye-ethylene kuMbindi Mpuma ibuyela ngokuthe ngcembe njengoko ukuvalwa kwexesha lonyaka kummandla kuncipha ekupheleni kuka-Matshi.Ngokunyuka kobonelelo kwiimarike zasekhaya zaseTshayina kunye namaxabiso aphezulu kweminye imimandla, abanye abavelisi bePP baya kuqhubeka ngokuthumela imithwalo engaphezulu yePP ukuya kweminye imimandla, kubandakanywa uMzantsi-mpuma Asia, uMzantsi Asia kunye noMzantsi Afrika.Oku kurhweba okusekwe kwifestile ye-arbitrage kunokuchaphazela iintsingiselo zexabiso kwezinye iindawo.

I-2.S&P Global: I-polyethylene yehlabathi kunye ne-propylene inzuzo yemida iya kuhlala iphantsi

Kungekudala, iintloko ezininzi ze-S & P Global Commodity Insights zichazwe kwiNkomfa yeHlabathi yePetrochemical e-Houston ukuba zombini i-polyethylene kunye ne-propylene industries iya kuba nemida yenzuzo ephantsi ngenxa yokungalingani phakathi kokubonelela kunye nemfuno.

UJesse Tijelina, intloko yeepolymers zehlabathi kwi-S&P Global, uthe ukungalingani okukhulu phakathi konikezelo kunye nemfuno kuye kwafaka imakethi yehlabathi yepolyethylene kwindawo yokusela, kwaye inzuzo yeshishini le-polyethylene ayinakuphinda ibuyele kude kube ngu-2024 kwasekuqaleni, kwaye ezinye iifektri ziya kuthi. kufuneka ivalwe ngokusisigxina.

U-Tijelina uthe ukusuka kwi-2012 ukuya kwi-2017, izinga lokukhula lokubonelela kunye nemfuno ye-polyethylene resin yayiphantse ifane, kodwa amandla okuvelisa agqithise imfuno malunga neetoni ezizigidi ezili-10 ngonyaka.Ngo-2027, umthamo omtsha uya kudlula imfuno entsha nge-3 yezigidi zeetoni / ngonyaka.Ngexesha elide, imarike ye-polyethylene ikhula ngesantya malunga neetoni ezizigidi ezi-4 ngonyaka.Ukuba ukongezwa kwamandla kuyekiwe ngoku, imakethi isazakuthatha malunga neminyaka emi-3 ukulungelelanisa."Xa sijonga emva kwe-2022, baninzi abavelisi abaye bavala okwethutyana impahla ebiza kakhulu, kwaye sikholelwa ukuba uninzi lwamandla okuvalwa okwethutyana luya kuvalwa ngokusisigxina kwikamva," utshilo uTijelina.

ULarry Tan, intloko yengingqi ye-Asia-Pacific, uthe ukunyuka kwepropane dehydrogenation (PDH) umthamo kuye kwakhokelela ekugqithiseni okukhulu kwimarike yepropylene, eya kugcina umda wenzuzo yeshishini lepropylene kwinqanaba eliphantsi kude kube yi-2025. Ishishini lehlabathi lepropylene okwangoku likwindawo yokutyela, kwaye imida yenzuzo ayiyi kuphucula kude kube ngu-2025 kwangoko.Ngo-2022, ukunyuka kweendleko zemveliso kunye nemfuno ebuthathaka kuya kugcina imida yengeniso iphantsi okanye ijike ibe nebi kubavelisi abaninzi bepropylene e-Asiya naseYurophu.Ukusukela ngo-2020 ukuya ku-2024, ukukhula komthamo wepropylene wepolymer kunye neekhemikhali kulindeleke ukuba kube ngamaxesha angama-2.3 aphezulu kunokukhula kwemfuno.

Nangona kunjalo, u-Tan uphinde wathi imida kufuneka "ilungile ngokufanelekileyo" kubo bonke abavelisi ngaphandle kwe-naphtha crackers eNtshona Yurophu ngo-2028. Imithombo emibini emikhulu yepropylene kwishishini lepetrochemical yiPDH kunye ne-refinery catalytic cracking.I-S&P Global ilindele ukuba inguqu yamandla iqhubele phantsi imfuno yepetroli yemoto, enye yeziphumo eziya kuba kukuncipha kwemisebenzi yokuqhekeka kwe-catalytic.“Ke xa imfuno yepropylene yehlabathi iqhubeka, intsilelo yepropylene kufuneka izaliswe kwenye indawo,” utshilo uTan.Iiyunithi zePDH aziyi kubona nzuzo ebalulekileyo kude kube ngoko.

I-3.Ukunciphisa imveliso engalindelekanga ye-OPEC ikhuthaza ukunyuka kwamaxabiso e-oli kumazwe ngamazwe

Njengamalungu oMbutho we-Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) ngokungalindelekanga abhengeze ukwehla okubukhali kwimveliso, amaxabiso e-oyile ekrwada yamazwe ngamazwe anyuke kakhulu ngaphezu kwe-6% ekupheleni kwe-3.

Ukususela ekupheleni kosuku, ixabiso leoli ye-oyile ekrwada ekuhanjisweni ngoMeyi kwiNew York Mercantile Exchange yenyuka i-$ 4.75 ukuvala i-80.42 ye-barrel, ukunyuka kwe-6.28%.I-London Brent crude futures yokuhanjiswa kukaJuni inyuke i-5.04 yeedola, okanye i-6.31%, ukuvala kwi-84.93 yeedola.

I-OPEC ibhengeze ngomhla we-3 ukuba iKomiti yezoBugcisa edibeneyo ye-OPEC kunye namazwe angewona i-OPEC avelisa ioli yaqaphela kwintlanganiso eyayibanjwe ngosuku olufanayo ukuba amalungu e-OPEC abhengeze ngomhla we-2 ukuba aya kuqalisa isicwangciso sokunciphisa imveliso ngokuzithandela kunye nomlinganiselo wemihla ngemihla. ye-1.157 yezigidi zemiphanda ukuqala ngoMeyi.Linyathelo lokhuseleko ukuzinzisa imarike yeoli.Kunye nomndilili wokucuthwa kwemveliso yemihla ngemihla yaseRashiya kwimiphanda engama-500,000 kude kube sekupheleni kwalo nyaka, isikali sisonke sokucuthwa kwemveliso ngokuzithandela ngamazwe avelisa ioli enkulu siya kufikelela malunga ne-1.66 yezigidi zemiphanda ngosuku.

UVivek Dahl, umhlalutyi wempahla yamandla kwi-Commonwealth Bank yase-Australia, wathi isigqibo samva nje samalungu e-OPEC sibonisa ukuba umphumo wokunciphisa imveliso unokuba namandla kunangaphambili.

IQela le-UBS liyaqhubeka nokugcina imbono efanelekileyo kumaxabiso eoli, ixela ukuba ixabiso leoli ye-Brent iya kufikelela kwi-$ 100 umgqomo ngoJuni kulo nyaka.

I-JIN DUN CHEMICALuye wakha isiseko esikhethekileyo (i-meth) ye-acrylic monomer yokuvelisa kwiphondo laseZHEJIANG.Oku kuqinisekisa unikezelo oluzinzileyo lwe-HEMA, i-HPMA, i-HEA, i-HPA, i-GMA enomgangatho ophezulu.Iimonomers zethu ezikhethekileyo ze-acrylate zisetyenziswa ngokubanzi kwi-thermosetting acrylic resins, iipolymers ze-emulsion ezinqamlezileyo, i-acrylate anaerobic adhesive, i-adhesive ye-acrylate enamacandelo amabini, i-adhesive acrylate e-solvent, i-emulsion acrylate adhesive, i-ejenti yokugqiba iphepha kunye nokupeyinta iireyini ze-acrylic ziphuhlise i-adhesive entsha. kunye (imeth) ekhethekileyo ye-acrylic monomers kunye ne-derivatives.Njengeemonomers ze-acrylate ezine-fluorinated, Inokusetyenziswa ngokubanzi kwi-ejenti yokulinganisa, iipeyinti, i-inki, i-photosensitive resins, izinto ezibonakalayo, unyango lwefayibha, isilungisi seplastiki okanye irabha.Sijonge ukuba ngababoneleli abaphezulu kwintsimi yeiimonomers ezikhethekileyo ze-acrylate, ukwabelana ngamava ethu atyebileyo ngeemveliso ezisemgangathweni kunye nenkonzo yobungcali.